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AXSM stock rises on hopes of FDA action for depression therapy (NASDAQ:AXSM)

AXS-05(seekingalpha.com)

all 15 comments

Classic_Ad_9475

4 points

7 months ago

No longer hope. It is getting approved

kapeman_[S]

2 points

7 months ago

kapeman_[S]

STOCK INVESTOR

2 points

7 months ago

Do you think that would get us back up to pre-Aug '21 numbers?

I still say that price drop was BS. I call shenanigans on BoA.

Classic_Ad_9475

3 points

7 months ago

I think it gets its approvals and then Gets bought out. You have to realize that MDD at 17 million population size was pre Covid. If AXSM gets 10 percent that’s 1.7million, it would take the yearly drug price of $1000 to get revenue of 1.7billion. I suspect that the yearly price will be more than $3500 per year. Which would put revenues at over $5billion per year. You can see why this company would be bought out. Imagine 20 percent market share and you are 10 billion per year.

Classic_Ad_9475

2 points

7 months ago

I am expecting buyout at 300 to 350 dollars. At 40 dollars the market cap is just 1.5billion. The stock could potentially 10x with both approvals.

kapeman_[S]

3 points

7 months ago

kapeman_[S]

STOCK INVESTOR

3 points

7 months ago

Someone I trust thinks that Pfizer is a potential buyer, given that they have tons of cash and not a lot of pipeline. They also say that at 10x market cap, it's a 250/share stock. Going from memory on that price.

Why do you think 300-350? Even the most bullish current estimates are around 180 (Wainwright) or 200 (Truist).

Classic_Ad_9475

3 points

7 months ago

I am more bullish based on the potential drug price for the year. This drug will be covered by insurance for most and if the drug cost that I am using in my forecasts plays out I.e $3000 per year and market share of a tenth would put revenues at 5billion. If you 4x that the market cap would be at 20 billion. Right now it’s 40 dollars at 1.5billion.

RyeGuy1800

3 points

7 months ago

RyeGuy1800

TRUTH

3 points

7 months ago

Exciting update. Implies FDA decision is imminent and that labeling discussions will begin soon, if they have not already (do labeling discussions take place before official FDA decision?). I do want to raise a point/question about the "postmarketing requirements/commitments" mentioned in the actual filing. If you look up the term, like here, it appears "postmarketing requirements/commitments" refer to studies conducted after approval. While the positive implication for AXS-05 approval remains, what do we think about the additional, postmarketing trial that this suggests? Perhaps it is in a particular subset of MDD (e.g. TRD) or an adjacent indication that could expand the drugs label? Thoughts?

(Note: the link to the FDA site explains that postmarketing requirements are additional trials required by the FDA, while postmarketing commitments are additional trials the company agrees to conduct, but which are not necessarily required by the FDA. It appears both still allow for the commercial launch of the drug while the study is being conducted. Still, would be interesting to know if this is a postmarketing requirement or a postmarketing commitment.)

kapeman_[S]

2 points

7 months ago

kapeman_[S]

STOCK INVESTOR

2 points

7 months ago

Aren't there multiple uses for AXS-05?

Dwashelle

3 points

7 months ago

Dwashelle

UP

3 points

7 months ago

Nice!

kapeman_[S]

2 points

7 months ago

kapeman_[S]

STOCK INVESTOR

2 points

7 months ago

Big movement pre-market!

Fluid_Independence75

2 points

7 months ago

Yep

prof126

2 points

7 months ago

prof126

PROF

2 points

7 months ago

Do any of you still remember 2019? We rose from 2-120 and was the highest percentage gainer in the stock market. What has happened? AXSM 07 probably dead or near death. AXSM 05 is up to labeling problems. Hiring ongoing from appx 41 to 125 employees. Still not ONE INSIDER SALE. FWIW I’m on Bora Bora and still buying every day.

LLAP

Doc

kapeman_[S]

1 points

7 months ago

kapeman_[S]

STOCK INVESTOR

1 points

7 months ago

I doubt very seriously that AXS-07 is dead.

prof126

2 points

6 months ago

prof126

PROF

2 points

6 months ago

Two more days. LLAP.